![]() ![]() ![]() In the case of Hurricane Marco in 2020, the center of the storm tracked outside of the cone originally issued five days before its approach to the Gulf Coast. However, tropical storms and hurricanes are not all identical, so this thought process could pose a problem when it comes time for hurricane preparations and evacuations. “The same cone is used all year long, for every forecast of every storm … they’re identical.” “The cone is just a shape defined by track forecast errors over the previous five years, such that there’s historically a two-thirds chance the track of the center of the storm will remain inside the cone, and a one-third chance it will be outside the cone,” McNoldy said. This made is very easy for people to figure out evacuation protocols.įive-day forecast cone of Hurricane Elsa overlaid with the actual storm track CNN Weatherīut weather forecasting is not a perfect science. The forecast track for that storm five days out was almost an exact match of where the storm actually ended up. If the cone does not change significantly, then the containment effect does not play as much of a role.Ī good example is Hurricane Elsa from earlier this year. The cone is much wider five days out than just 24 hours out to account for this error. Statistically speaking, the longer the forecast period, the more room for error exist. The intended message of the track forecast cone is to show where the center of the storm could be over the next five days. That is most definitely not the intended message.” “People see it and think that being inside the cone is bad, and outside the cone is fine. “The most common misunderstanding about the cone of uncertainty is the border of it,” said Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. In general, people perceive areas that are highlighted within the cone as “at risk” and areas that are outside of the cone as being “safe.” Researchers refer to this perceived notion as the “containment effect.” The problem stems from how people perceive the boundaries of the track forecast cone. Now, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) may have come up with a better way to inform the public about hurricanes to help keep them safe. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical system and extends up to five days in 12-hour increments, according to the hurricane center.Įven though the center of a storm remains within the cone 60 to 70% of the time, according to data from the hurricane center over the last five years, the effects of tropical storms and hurricanes often extend much farther than this defined boundary. The graphic in question is the track of the hurricane issued by the National Hurricane Center, but even more specifically the track forecast cone – colloquially known as the “cone of uncertainty.” The most used and looked at graphic when a hurricane is forecast could be unintentionally misleading the public into perceiving that they could be safe from a hurricane’s track and impacts. ![]()
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